Denne viktige konferansen som ble holdt i Oslo i begynnelsen av februar fortjener å få bred dekning. Atlanterhavskomiteen har et velredigert opptak av hele konferansen på sin hjemmeside. Vi har vært så heldige å få tilgang til Colin Peter Jenesons fyldige notater fra konferansen og legger dem her fram i sin helhet. Vi vil foreslå å starte med å lese gjennom notatene og deretter finne fram til opptak av den aktuelle sekvensen dersom man ønsker å lytte til det hele slik som ordene falt på konferansen.
Her finner du hele konferansen på Youtube oppdelt i forhold til programmets sesjoner:
Conference Notes recorded by Colin Peter Jeneson – Member, The Norwegian Atlantic Committee
NB The following notes are not a complete set of all inputs given during the two days conference
Opening Session
Transatlantic Security in an Era of Uncertainty
Keynote Address
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre
Notes recorded:
- The Cold War was less threatening than today´s situation
- Are we now in a pre-war period?
- I am pleased that the World Economic Forum are here today
- The implications of war in Ukraine extremely important for us in Norway, for Europe too
- The first visit of the current Polish EU President was to Norway
- Norway delivers 40% of Poland´s gas
- How to deal with hybrid challenges?
- Importance of knowing when we are challenged and the implications of the challenges
- The current threat to Denmark over Greenland
- Nordic prime ministers met together with Denmark´s prime minister last week
- Joint Effort from Norfolk
- High North is our key priority
- In Norway the Labour Party and the Conservative Party both agree on this
- Messages out of Trump in US
- Consequences: Norway supplies 30% of Europe´s gas and 40% of UK´s gas
- We will highlight the common interest/importance we have with US in the High North
- Our Defence Plan for the next 5-10 years
- War and disaster preparedness – increased focus
- A National Security Plan for Norway is now being drafted
- How to take care of economic security is one of its key aspects
- Norway has the world´s longest coastline
- We must get back to essentials – we are living in difficult times
- Joint Baltic and Nordic co-operation now being established
- The Ukraine War facilitated a closer Nordic and Nordic-Baltic military co-operation
- The Norway and Finland relationship is very important for the future
- Our relationship with EU is now far more focused on security – not only militarily, but energy-wise and other area too
The Strategic Defence Review and UK’s Future Role in NATO
The Rt Hon. the Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT, Reviewer of UK Strategic Defence
Review, Former NATO Secretary General, and UK Secretary of State for Defence
Notes recorded:
- We in the UK regard Norway as a very important partner
- Post-war stability in relationships and peace has gone
- The authoritarians and populists are now a threat
- NATO´s Article 3: Each country is responsible for its own defence
- A comprehensive report based on extensive international inputs on UK´s defence will soon be handed to the UK Prime Minister
- I recommend the Nordic-Baltic regional defence co-operation
- It is stunning that we have North Korean soldiers fighting on our doorstep and we just say, “Oh yes.”
- We should not worry about regional defence groupings within Europe
- The only thing that Putin cares about in the UK is that we have Nuclear deterrence
NATO in Uncertain Times
Admiral Rob Bauer, Former Chair of the Military Committee of NATO
Notes recorded:
- Closer co-operation between Russia and China, AND Russia and North Korea are increasing challenges for the High North and Europe
- Military expansion in China is extensive
- Allies in Europe all agree on what is needed regarding equipment, plans and strategies
- What was led by the US is now led by NATO
- We all want a just and lasting peace
- The China-Iran-Russia-North Korea threat
- We know in NATO what we need to have
- Increased commitment from NATO members is essential
- Delays in deliveries pose challenges not just military and defence wise
- Prices go up
- There is nothing unethical about protecting ourselves
- We must become more resilient
- NATO is now stronger than ever
- As our resilience increases, the threat of war decreases
- If we want peace we have to prepare for war
- Netherlands, Germany and Poland is a regional defence co-operation within NATO
- It is sometimes more effective to co-operate in this way instead of always trying to do so by aligning regional initiatives with NATO administration
- We HAVE money in Europe, so we MUST step-up!
- Since the 1990´s we have outsourced too much to private enterprises
- We must discuss conscription
- The people have to become part of the solution
- We must move away from ME to WE
- We have to speak and think more strategically
- Norway´s electricity plans for the future depend on raw materials, but China has overwhelmingly dominance in possession of raw materials
- There are many questions to learn from the Russia-Ukraine war
Stronger Nordic-Baltic Cooperation within NATO
Stian Jenssen, Former Chief of Staff to Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Notes recorded:
- Our joint capacity is actually quite substantial in the face of threats
- The Nordic co-operation is a story of unfulfilled ambitions
- How can the Nordic and Baltic countries play a more important role defence-wise?
- This region is currently a top supporter of Ukraine and should play a more important role in NATO and Europe
- Important regional groupings operate within the NATO framework
- The Nordic-Baltic co-operation is not only important for this region, but for the whole of Europe
- NATO will have to step up regardless of any US demands
- There is a big disconnection between what we are saying and what we are prepared to do
- Russia is in disarray
- In Europe we tend to ignore our capacity financially to deal with the conflict and future conflicts
US’ Future Role in NATO
Rachel Ellehuus, Director General, RUSI London
Notes recorded:
- Among the US public there is a declining opinion of the importance of NATO
- It started in the days of the Obama administration
- It is time to reduce dependence on the US
- It wasn´t until Germany stepped up its military resources that Norway also did so
- The importance of the new regional groupings within NATO is now encouraging
- There are also Bi-lateral security arrangements now
- We should remind Trump that our combined defence depends on our relationship with Greenland-Denmark
Session Two
Geopolitics and the major powers: US, China, Russia and India
The US-China Rivalry
Jo Inge Bekkevold, The Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies
Notes recorded:
- The threat to US is not in Europe but in Asia
- China is fastly increasing its military power
- It now has the world´s biggest navy
- China has the ability to respond to US threats
- We will see them responding under the Trump administration
- US is still the most powerful state
- Trump´s policy will weaken the US
- Economic state craft (including tariffs)
- Statements by rump also weaken US
- Trump´s pulling out of the International order
- The global south
- China stepping up to take US place
- In China the state is too big
- But there is also a risk it could become too small
- The US risk of focusing too much on less important issues and countries at the risk of losing the big picture
- America First may turn out to be America Alone
- The US has two flanks: The Pacific and The Atlantic
- If we had realized this long ago, we would now be in much better shape
- If Trump makes a deal with Russia, it will not change the Russia-China relationship
- Trump cannot be trusted
- China´s opinion too
The Axis of Upheaval
Kate Johnston, Associate Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Notes recorded:
- It is difficult to visualise the long-term threats of the Trump administration
- America First
- promoting US on the world stage
- Trump has historically lost his credibility and therefore feels free to go ahead at full speed with his own selfish motives
- Some of Trump´s initiatives are according to him designed to avoid US being pulled into a war – this may well backfire!
The Russia-China Partnership
Aleksander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Notes recorded:
- The Russia-China relationship may be complicated for Russia, but what other options does Russia have?
- Russia-Iran relationship seems limited to mainly weapon deliveries
- Ukraine´s main challenge is not ammunitions and weapons, but manpower
- Russia-China relationship is much greater than any US-China relationship can be
- China will continue to help Putin stay in power, but will do nothing in the way of military support
- Without the US, Europe is not equipped for sanctions
- The big problem is that Russia is giving away technology know-how to North Korea (and China?) so they can later attack Europe
Indias Great Power Politics
Raja Mehan, Visiting Research Professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)
Notes recorded:
- Most of Asia (not India) will build up military capabilities
- Because of India´s long-standing relationship with Russia, it is not easy for India to distance itself from Russia
- India´s historic and current problems with China are significant
- Europe needs two security partners in Asia and one of them should be India
- India is still developing economically
- Europe and India can and should find common ground
- India will still maintain its US relationship
- Too much focus on weaponizing – Too little on maintaining and developing alliances
- China and Russia are looking for a deal with the US
A shout from the audience: “India is helping Russia win the war!”
Session Three
The Future of Ukraine under Trump?
Ukraine, Three Years into the War
Hanna Shelest, Director of Security Programmes at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” and Editor-on-chief at UA: Ukraine Analytica
Notes recorded:
- The war in Ukraine started in February 2014, not in February 2022
- Europe´s weapons to Ukraine are not so much going to help Ukraine win the war as to protect themselves from attacks
- You cannot guarantee the status tomorrow
- You cannot guarantee supply of weapons
- Partners will have short-term solutions
- Ukraine will have long-term solutions
- We will be trapped into long-term solutions
- For Ukraine it has always been important to have the support of US
- For Trump. Everything is personal
- When Trump is criticized by Zelensky he regards it as an insult, then seeks revenge
- We never talk about how to help Ukraine to win
- Need for Ukraine to convince/persuade Europe and US to help them win the war
- Must walk the talk
- The big question is how to win the full support of Europe to win the war in Ukraine
NATO Commitments to Ukraine
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben HODGES, Former Commanding General of US Army Europe
Notes recorded:
- For 11 years Russia has had all advantages but today only has 8% of Ukraine
- We failed in the West to identify key objectives
- We were terrified Russia would use nuclear weapons
- Russia cannot be trusted
- Europe will have to pay the price
- Must focus first on what is the outcome of the war, before focussing on a peace-keeping process
- I have never been so worried before
- It´s going to take until the mid-term US elections in 2 years before we can hope for any stability
- We should not exaggerate Russia´s achievements in Ukraine
- Any European soldiers in Ukraine must be backed up first by a mission definition, strategy, weaponry, etc.
- The goal must be to win the war against Russia
- Anything less than this will lead to European and Ukrainian disaster
- Unconditional German surrender in WW2
- Churchill and Roosevelt
US-Russia Relations
Ruth Deyermond, Senior Lecturer in Post-Soviet Security, Department of War Studies, King´s College
Notes recorded:
- The 2nd. Trump Admin. is characterized by a defined process/target
- He is talking to people who have a similar view, among them Putin. Netanyahu too.
- There is no indication that the Trump administration will push Russia to withdraw
- A peace deal between US and Russia will be detrimental for the West and will not cease the war long-term
- Now, the greatest threat to Russia is what is happening inside the US
- It is difficult to know what is happening behind the scenes with Trump´s Admin.
- Trump has historically refused to blame or attack Putin
- Russia will never accept a peace-keeping force of 200.000 persons
- More important than considerations over Russia´s capacity to win a war is Western anxiety over Russia´s capacity to win the war
- Communication is most important.
Session Four
Europe alone with Russia?
The French Perspective
Alexandre Escorcia, Head of Service Europe, North America and Multilateral Action, French Ministry of the Armed Forces
Notes recorded:
- It´s not just 2% or 3% or what you spend it on – personnel, weapons, etc.
- Europe together has a very good economic capacity, which includes long-range missiles, artillery, etc.
- The leadership NATO has taken under Norway´s leadership (Stoltenberg) has been very good
- Essential to continue to actively support Ukraine
- Security guarantees too
- Thinking out of the box important too
- France will not accept a neutralization of Ukraine
- This will make NATO more attractive to US (if we do all these things)
The German Perspective
Karl Heinz Kamp, Associate Fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Notes recorded:
- Three important items:
- Will Europe defend, deter or attack?
- What is it that Germany has to completely do?
- More defence spending – all decided on paper!
- Will US give more security guarantees for Ukraine?
- US is not willing to commit more money as long as Europe is not willing to do so
- Important to convince societies of importance of spending more money on defence
- We do not attract enough soldiers
- Can we combine conscription with a social year?
- The Green Party is the only party that has agreed to 3.5% defence spending
The Enemy from Within – Russian Information Warfare
Rastislav Kacer, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia, Diplomat, Honorary Chairman of the GLOBSEC organization and President of the Slovak Atlantic Commission
Notes recorded:
- Step-by-step democracy in Slovakia
- Only 30 years independency
- Our government is under criminal investigation – Oligarchs involved
- We are able to help, but we need to first be willing!
- We have challenges outside and inside the country
- We must create coalitions
- Big security predicaments in Slovakia
The Polish Perspective
Marta Prochwicz, Deputy Head, Warsaw Office Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Notes recorded:
- Poland has benefited greatly from EU funding
- Social consensus in this: very helpful
- Our military funding expansion is not something which happened as a result of Ukraine, it started before, but is now increasing
- Our Polish leader is a great European and is now leading EU
- We must lower our expectations vis-à-vis our own country Poland
- We have a high risk now of political change. Elections are imminent
- We have to re-model our economic model. EU targets are very difficult for us to achieve
- We have a comprehensive vision for EU
The European Perspective
Barbara Kunz, Senior Researcher and Director of the SIPRI European Security Programme
Notes recorded:
- We must strengthen the EU pillar of NATO
- This must be done through national budgets for defence and security
- Strengthen also at military and national levels
- including defence industries and military capabilities
- We must overcome political opposition
- Germany is questioning whether we should give the European Commission more power
- Is Trump the symptom or the cause?
- We don´t fully understand the US
- We don´t trust the US
The US Perspective
Jim Townsend, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Society
Notes recorded:
- I can understand Europe´s concern over US right now
- Today there is a summit in Brussels on European Defence
- This meeting is crucially important
- Allies are working together today to arrange a summit with US
- The big thing Trump will focus on is the 5% commitment
- The next big thing is Cyber
- Trump´s method is intimidation and bullying
- Trump will withdraw troops around the world
- What must Europe do? Answer: Come to the table with 5%
- Don´t come with less than 3.5%
- All the good things EU and NATO are doing must be visible to Trump
- We must get the summit right
Day Two – Session One
Securing NATO´s Northern Flank: Confronting Russia in Europe´s High North
Defending the High North – A Norwegian Perspective
General Eirik Kristoffersen, Chief of Defence Norway
Notes recorded:
- Recent events in the Baltic Sea have raised alarm
- NATO is re-evaluating its strategy towards Russia
- As I speak, it is being announced that Jens Stoltenberg will be Norway´s Finance Minister
- Will our support for Ukraine be further strengthened?
- 45 members of NATO now
- More strength economically
- More strength through shared values
- Russia has not achieved its goals in Ukraine
- They have also lost their alliance in Syria
- Ukraine is holding the line
- Investing in Ukraine military industries is also strengthening Ukraine
- We need to stand together as allies to strengthen defence in Ukraine, but also nationally
- Reforms in the government and military are being implemented
- Blaming each other is now over. It´s up to me now, as Chief of Defence, to implement
- At the end of the Cold War NATO did not standardize equipment
- We are suffering from this today
- This is now being addressed
- Standardized data is also crucially important
- Implementation of AI is also very important
- Our IT infrastructure is now organized better
- Norway will participate in military exercises with Australia and Japan during summer 2025
- In Ukraine, the number of drones is very high
- The number of drone replacements is also very high
- Operators, Decision makers and Industries co-operation in Ukraine is positive
- All western countries are investing in weapons and the military generally
- We have to continue to supply to Ukraine – to its industry too
- To supply Ukraine is the best thing for OUR security and GLOBAL security
- If you let dictators get their own way the future is bleak, disastrous
- We will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes
- We are restructuring and reorganizing towards a modern armed force
- We need a total defence concept
- We need to plan for war across all sectors, together with industry too
- In Ukraine we see continuous innovation and restructuring. Norway must too
- We also have to increase our reserve forces
- Our military is working closely with Kongsberg defence industries
- We need to achieve lower prices
- We need to introduce innovative products and services
- Logistics in EU countries must be synchronized for swifter and more efficient deliveries
- Norway is working closely at how to deal with rising costs of equipment.
Defending the High North – A Finnish Perspective
General Janne Jaakola, Chief of Defence Finland
Notes recorded:
- Finland gas been a member of NATO for two years
- not so many challenges, but a lot of work
- How to innovate is one of our major considerations
- Integration of systems and forces are of paramount importance
- NATO plans and objectives require that we modernize in greater tempo and scope
- Finland has very heavy land forces
- In the future we need more cyber
- Production and innovation within Finland is important
- Now we have multi-national requirements
- Norway has to modernize and implement similarly
- Finland has kept a larger mobilization force than Norway
- The Nordic countries have done a lot since 2022
- We still have a lot to do
- Norway Chief of Defence comment: But it´s not difficult
- Finland is increasing its forces in the Far North and in the Baltics
- Troops will be rotated
- Forces must always be available in the High North to face potential crises
- We must have surveillance and control of the High North and the Baltic region
- With ships, planes and personnel
- A tight co-operation between Norway and Finland is essential
- Hybrid threats: Safety, Security, Defence
- The need for continuous improvements in how to deal with threats
- GMS jamming – a security problem
- Comment by Norway´s Chief of Defence:
- The UK has also supported Norway in these and other matters
- A good co-operation forum
- We have to be swifter to react
- We discuss common problems, solutions and threats
The UK Strategic Defence Review – Britain´s Role in Northern European Security
General The Lord David Richards, Retired Senior British Army Officer, Former Chief of the Defence Staff
Notes recorded:
- I see flaws in political and military strategies
- We set Ukraine up to win but didn´t give them the resources
- If you want UK to contribute you must specify and insist on requirements
- Unless we find more money for defence, we will have to decide whether we want to be a naval power or something else
- The UK has a huge hole in its actual requirements. It needs at least 3% of GDP
- If we were to put peace-keeping forces in Ukraine we would have to use ALL our military personnel
- We have to make sure that we don´t have to fight a war
- we do so by increasing our military potential
- We must not allow US to become de-coupled from Europe
- The most important thing is COMMAND and CONTROL
- What NATO is doing today is excellent
- We need to give our commanders the freedom they require in face of threats and other major challenges
Comments by General Eirik Kristoffersen, Chief of Defence Norway:
- NATO has indeed progressed a lot
- Procurement of equipment is not so much about procedures, it´s more about structures
- UNITY is paramount – the need to exercise together
- It is not simply about Norway having exercises in Finland
- It is about having plans for joint exercises
- It is also very important that Norway meets the trans-Atlantic requirements of US
NATO´s approach to Russia
Krisztian Meszaros, Director of Partnerships and lobal Affairs, NATO
Notes recorded:
- Our current strategic concept is from 2022
- It is based on all our current strategies
- Cyber is Sabotage
- Russia walked away from partnership
- We have to work together in face of threats from China
Comment by General Eirik Kristoffersen, Chief of Defence Norway:
- The government is responsible for defining top-level strategies
Comments by The Lord David Richards, Retired Senior British Army Officer, Former Chief of the Defence Staff:
- Diplomacy is very important
- Russia is a mighty power in the Far North
- Russia and China need to know they must be cautious
- Diplomacy mixed with military investments is the best deterrence
- The greatest flashpoints in the future could be in the High North
- Worst Case Planning is essential
Day Two – Session Two
Quo Vadis Norway?
Combined notes recorded from inputs given during a panel debate by:
Knut Hauge, Former Ambassador and Director General at the Norwegian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs – The Perpetual Threat Posed by Russia
Iver B. Neumann, Director, Fridtjof Nansen Institute – Russia-Norway
Ulf Sverdrup, Professor, Norwegian Business School. Former Director of the Norwegian
Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) – Europe, The European Union and Norway
Janne Haaland Matlary, Professor of International Politics, University of Oslo and the
Norwegian National Defence University College – The Transatlantic Partnership and Norway
Karsten Friis, Research Professor, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) – Ukraine and The Nordic Countries
- The Russian War against Ukraine was a war of choice by Putin
- Putin will never permit Ukraine to be a member of NATO
- Russia is an existential threat to the West
- A peace deal or compromise is not feasible now
- The US cannot get whatever Trump wants without Trump being a loser
- Trump must be stopped
- We don´t know what will happen even tomorrow
- For 40 years we have supposed that if we are nice to the Russians things will be OK
- This is not the reality
- Russian genocides on the world stage and in Ukraine
- There is no difference with the potential for genocide in Norway
- We should deter
- We should be able to maintain our own house here in Norway
- The alternative is to engage Russia
- Talking is important. We must do so
- We should continue our positive discussions with Russia on fishing
- Maintaining this gateway opportunity for discussions with Russia is important
- Deep concern over whether there will still be consensus between the left and right political parties on still standing with US
- Intense discussions going forward on the 5% defence spending demand from Trump
- Massive competition across all sectors for resource spending
- Including demands from EU – culture, etc., etc.
- The Trade War risk (Trump)
- Europe must be tough confronting Trump threats
- In NATO Trump has a valid criticism (%)
- Many states in Europe do not have much military capability (very low %)
- Norway is already in a cyber warfare (Russia)
- Ukraine will lose the war if the current level of aid from NATO countries continues to be far too low
- Is it wise to be so dependent on US, e.g. energy
- We should think more about who our geographically close allies are
- We must be willing to invest more in defence. Norway MUST take this very seriously.
- Nordic integration during the last few years is a fantastic story
- Russia´s nuclear weapons in the High North are directed at both the Nordic countries and US
- Therefore, sustained co-operation with US is very important
- Are we in Europe really as united as we should be?
- Ukraine´s dependency on the US military
- Most of the equipment going to Ukraine is manufactured in US
- I see two opposing political party realities in Norway on how the Ukraine War should be handled
- NOW is the time to resolve this! MUST achieve CONSENSUS!
- We must mobilize existing resources in SOCIETY for greater security
- Strategic economy is important
- Should Norway manufacture weaponry and ammunitions to a greater extent instead of buying from other countries?
