Dette er et intervju gjennomført av Sophie Matlary (InFo) med Hesham Youssef, tidligere egyptisk diplomat og nåværende seniorrådgiver ved US Institute of Peace. Vi beholder den engelskspråklige originalen.
Question: Please comment on Norway’s relatively active role internationally, as a commentator and somewhat actor, in the Israeli-Palestinian war. Especially looking at the fact that Norway decided to recognize Palestine as a state earlier this year.
Hesham Youssef: As far as the role of Norway in the war on Gaza, I have to admit that the effort exerted by the international community is shameful. No country in the world can claim that its effort was instrumental in moving towards a ceasefire or to reduce the suffering of the Palestinians particularly in Gaza.
There is no doubt that the Norwegian recognition of Palestine was a significant step in the right direction and it sent a message of hope to the Palestinians and a message to Israel that it has to move towards a resolution to the conflict because the situation is not sustainable. The current war is a clear reflection of this undisputed fact.
Question: Was this a move that created sustainable change in favor of Palestinian? Today it is hard for Norway to have any real say in the conflict, due to Israel not wanting to engage in contact with Norway directly anymore.
Hesham Youssef: Sadly, this step did not create any change in favor of the Palestinians on the ground and this is clear from the images we have been watching on our screens for 11 months. And yes, it is hard to achieve progress and this does not only apply to Norway, it applies to many countries including the United States, European as well as key countries in the region.
Question: Please describe two possible scenarios for the region: As the war raging between Israel and Palestine does not come to a halt, there are growing concerns for the surrounding countries. Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon have weakened economies as a result, and there are already military clashes between Lebanon and Israel. Will these trends continue throughout 2024?
Hesham Youssef: The main two scenarios are one in which a ceasefire is achieved and a second in which the war continues. There are several other scenarios like the possibility of a more intensive regional war or reaching a ceasefire that breaks down and the war resumes. If a ceasefire is reached, it would be possible to work on stabilization, humanitarian assistance and early recovery. This could also encourage further progress if a change in policy is seen in Israel. If the war continues, then the extent of devastation and the spread of the war becomes much more likely.
The hope is for a ceasefire deal to be agreed, but the situation becomes more complicated with every single passing day.
Question: What patterns of cooperation exist in the Middle East, between Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon. I was recently in Jordan, where Israeli tourists were visiting, and it seemed that the partnership between Jordan, the US and Israel meant that the country remained out of conflict, even if the conflict is on its borders. What can you say about current alliances, officially, and less officially, as you see them?
Hesham Youssef: As long as the war on Gaza continues, cooperation between Israel and Arab countries will be extremely limited. We have seen the suspension of a number of key projects between Israel and Jordan, in particular the Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to exchanging solar energy from Jordan with desalinated water from Israel. It is also inconceivable to expect the Negev Forum to convene at this juncture, and so on.
